In a further tick for the data, the bottom four clubs this year also ranked worst on their cohesion metrics – and the tone was set within the first three rounds of the season for most of the strugglers.
Geelong were in celebration mode last week, but will they be the same on grand final day?Credit: Getty Images
As always, there are outliers – Sydney and Melbourne ranked top four in GLA’s cohesion scores, while the Crows placed 10th – while home-ground advantage and strength of fixture are significant factors not only in where a club finishes, but also their September chances.
“Adelaide’s home-and-away opposition was marginally lower than the competition average, meaning they didn’t play against the strongest opposition, exaggerating their overall win percentage,” Strachan told The Age.
“It indicates they might be underdone for the finals, which could have been why Collingwood, with stronger cohesion strength, won in week one of the finals.”
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Strachan hypothesised that the Swans having a first-year coach in Dean Cox may have contributed to the slow start that ended up costing them a finals berth.
The Demons, on the other hand, have lurched from one challenging off-field moment to another in the past two years, from Joel Smith’s positive drugs test to stars Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca wanting out at different times, and finally, coach Simon Goodwin’s sacking.
Another interesting trend in GLA’s cohesion data in the past decade is that the average cohesion strength score for Geelong and non-Victorian clubs that won the premiership was 17.4, compared to only 13.9 for teams that were MCG-based.
“Going into the next round of finals, the three Victorian-based teams are in the top four for cohesion strength,” Strachan said.
“Collingwood and Hawthorn [out of the remaining flag contenders] have an advantage because of their MCG home-ground advantage.
“Potentially, Collingwood have the strongest advantage, with good cohesion markers and home-ground advantage for the prelim – but with Brisbane expected to get over Gold Coast [based on the betting markets], it will be the stronger side of the draw.”
Scott Pendlebury is one of many constants in Collingwood’s senior side.Credit: AFL Photos
The Magpies added Dan Houston, Lachie Schultz, Bobby Hill, Patrick Lipinski, Tom Mitchell, Daniel McStay, Harry Perryman and Billy Frampton from rival clubs across the past four off-seasons, but have largely relied on a core of players.
Super-veterans Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom headline that line-up consistency, but the likes of captain Darcy Moore, Nick and Josh Daicos, Jack Crisp, Darcy Cameron, Jamie Elliott, Jeremy Howe, Brody Mihocek and Beau McCreery have played a lot of football together the past four years.
That is a significant factor in why Collingwood perform so well in Gain Line Analytics’ cohesion measures – and why the Magpies might be belting out “Good old Collingwood forever” on grand final day.
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