In the US, Trump plays king – just try to stop him issuing a decree on Hollywood.
The showbiz-obsessed president has twice this year threatened to impose a 100 per cent tariff on foreign-made films, which he says are decimating domestic content production.
Credit: Michael Howard
Further complicating the outcome is the fact that the two firms vying for Warner Bros are not both bidding for apples. Paramount wants all of Warner Bros while Netflix only wants HBO, the Hollywood studios and the streaming assets.
Also, Netflix is offering cash and its own shares as payment, while Paramount is offering just cash (which shareholders generally prefer). This makes valuation of the offers a bit murkier.
However, both the corporate predators understand it’s not just about money, but leaving Trump feeling loved up.
At first blush, Paramount appears to have the inside running.
Paramount’s offer includes financing from Affinity Partners, the investment firm run by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, several Trump-friendly Middle Eastern government-run investment funds and the Ellison family. Larry Ellison, the world’s second-richest person, who has been referred to inside the White House as the “shadow president”, is the father of Paramount head David Ellison and also has close ties to the White House.
Netflix co-chief executive Ted Sarandos has personally courted Trump, meeting him at the White House last month and last year at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida.
There are unconfirmed reports that Sarandos received a positive hearing about Netflix’s plans to make a move on Warner Bros.
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But measuring the chances of either bidding party by reading the off-the-cuff Trump commentary or media speculation is a minefield of interpretive guesswork.
When asked about the Netflix deal on Sunday, Trump said it would “go through a process” and that “it is a big market share. It could be a problem.”
Bets on prediction marketplace Polymarket showed a 23 per cent chance of Netflix closing the acquisition by the end of 2026, down from about 60 per cent just before Trump’s comments, according to Fortune.
The following day Trump criticised CBS’s 60 Minutes following an interview the program had with congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, a supporter-turned-critic of Trump. He said CBS parent Paramount is “no better than the old ownership”.
There is a long way to go in the race for Hollywood. So place your bets.
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