American presidents have broad discretion to deploy US forces abroad, but Trump’s asserted blockade marks a new test of presidential authority, said international law scholar Elena Chachko of UC Berkeley Law School.
Blockades have traditionally been treated as permissible “instruments of war” but only under strict conditions, Chachko said. “There are serious questions on both the domestic law front and international law front,” she added.
US Democratic congressman Joaquin Castro called the blockade “unquestionably an act of war,” while another American official predicted it could have a major impact on Maduro.
David Goldwyn, a former State Department energy diplomat, said if Venezuelan oil exports are not replaced by increased OPEC spare capacity, oil prices could rise from $US5 – $US8 a barrel.
“I would expect inflation to skyrocket, and massive and immediate migration from Venezuela to neighbouring countries,” Goldwyn said.
As of last week, more than 30 of the 80 ships in Venezuelan waters or approaching the country were under US sanctions, according to data compiled by TankerTrackers.com.
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Maduro, speaking at an event on Tuesday before Trump’s announcement, said, “Imperialism and the fascist right want to colonise Venezuela to take over its wealth of oil, gas, gold, among other minerals. We have sworn absolutely to defend our homeland, and in Venezuela, peace will triumph.”
The Venezuelan leader has alleged that the US military build-up is aimed at overthrowing him and gaining control of the OPEC nation’s oil resources, which are the world’s largest crude reserves.
Venezuela produces about 1 million barrels a day and has long relied on oil revenue as a lifeblood of its economy.
Since the Trump administration began imposing oil sanctions in 2017, Maduro’s government has relied on a shadowy fleet of unflagged tankers to smuggle crude into global supply chains.
The state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, commonly known as PDVSA, has been locked out of global oil markets by US sanctions. It sells most of its exports at steep discounts in China’s black market.
Francisco Monaldi, a Venezuelan oil expert at Rice University in Houston, said about 850,000 barrels of the 1 million daily production is exported. Of that, he said, 80 per cent goes to China, 15 to 17 per cent goes to the US through Chevron Corp, and the remainder goes to Cuba.
It wasn’t immediately clear how the US planned to enact what Trump called a “TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela”.
But the US Navy has 11 ships in the region, including an aircraft carrier and several amphibious assault ships.
Those ships carry a wide complement of aircraft, including helicopters and V-22 Ospreys. Additionally, the Navy has been operating a handful of P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft in the region.
President Nicolas Maduro is accused of stealing elections and having links to drug cartels.Credit: AP
The recent build-up has been accompanied by a series of military strikes on boats in international waters in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific. The campaign, which has drawn bipartisan scrutiny among US lawmakers, has killed at least 95 people in 25 known strikes on vessels.
The Trump administration has defended it as a success, saying it has prevented drugs from reaching American shores, and they pushed back on concerns that it is stretching the bounds of lawful warfare.
Washington has said the campaign is about stopping drug shipments, but Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, appeared to confirm in a Vanity Fair interview published on Tuesday that the campaign is part of a push to oust Maduro.
Wiles said Trump “wants to keep on blowing boats up until Maduro cries uncle”, and the president’s blockade announcement appears to have a similar aim.
AP, Reuters
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