To turn ceasefire into peace, Trump has to somehow overcome drivers of death. Because not everyone values the sanctity of life. On both sides, there are fanatical forces committed to the utter destruction of the other.
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In the case of Hamas, it only exists to kill Jews. It is a death cult, its fighters fully committed to martyrdom in its cause. Under Trump’s plan, its fighters are supposed to decommission all their weapons and its infrastructure of war, such as tunnels and arms factories. And calmly walk away from their mission. Hamas members who commit to “peaceful coexistence” with Israel are to be given amnesty and “provided safe passage to receiving countries” if they choose to leave, in the words of the Trump plan.
The group’s political leaders, housed in luxury in Qatar, might be prepared to accept these terms. It seems unlikely that its fighting forces, waging guerilla warfare in and under Gaza, will meekly convert from fanatical genocide of Jews to enjoy “peaceful coexistence”.
And, even if they do relinquish their weapons and leave Gaza, many are sure to regroup and renew their war from another location. Moshe Phillips pointed out in the Jerusalem Post this week the precedent of 1982.
Israel had Yasser Arafat trapped in Beirut and planned to kill him. Under US pressure, Israel allowed him to survive and decamp. It was, wrote Phillips, chairman of Americans for a Safe Israel, “the beginning of a long-term tragedy. Arafat regrouped in Tunis, rebuilt his network, and rebranded himself from terrorist to ‘statesman’.
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“Yet, the blood never stopped flowing. Under his leadership, terror continued – from suicide bombings in Israeli cafes to the glorification of martyrdom in Palestinian school textbooks to incitement in Palestinian Authority-controlled media.”
In the case of Israel, its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been pursuing perpetual war against Palestinians largely to appease the fanatical far-right members of his governing coalition.
The Gaza war already is the longest in the history of Israel. Netanyahu’s stated aim of the “elimination” of Hamas, down to every last fighter, never was achievable.
That was the point. It licensed him to conduct war without end, a demand of his Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, and National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir.
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And as long as they remain part of Netanyahu’s coalition, Netanyahu remains in power, safe from any reckoning for his failure over the October 7, 2023, Hamas massacre, and immune from conviction over the corruption cases still pending against him.
On each side, a minority of fanatics seized control over their people to pursue unquenchable hatred against the other. So Hamas and the Netanyahu regime will be on alert to grasp any pretext to find fault in the process, to walk away from peace talks and resume the killing.
“The whole thing could collapse and Donald Trump’s credibility would be undermined,” reflects Saikal. “We are at the beginning of a very arduous process.” This week’s Nobel Peace Prize is supposed to be for events of 2024. By this time next year, we should be able to see whether Trump qualifies for the 2025 prize.
Peter Hartcher is international editor.
