This is the season when columnists turn to prophecy, and then congratulate themselves a year later for getting some of it right.
I’m afraid I’m about to join the club.
As I predicted at the end of last year, Asia in 2025 revolved around three main forces: the blossoming bromance between US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping, rising pressure on Taiwan, and a newly emboldened Kim Jong Un drawing closer to both Moscow and Beijing.
It’s not going to last: US President Donald Trump with Chinese President Xi Jinping.Credit: AP
These dynamics will only get more obvious in 2026. The region is heading into an increasingly precarious year, with deepening tensions that will have a cascading effect on all of us.
The Trump-Xi bromance could go sour
On the surface, Trump and Xi appear to have found a new warmth — but it’s fragile. Xi was the winner of the trade war in 2025, which means Trump is going into this next year on the back foot. That won’t be lost on Washington, no matter how loud the bluster. While the rapprochement has been welcomed by markets, a lot could go wrong. The leaders will have the opportunity to meet as many as four times in 2026, providing multiple occasions for relations to head south.
And even if they don’t, they’ll likely remain tense, according to a 2026 forecast for United States-China relations from the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies. Almost three-quarters of respondents, comprising China experts and observers, see relations deteriorating across the board, from military and trade ties to technology. That’s despite Trump’s most recent decision to allow Nvidia to sell advanced chips to China, watering down years of national security safeguards. Washington says Nvidia’s top products will still be restricted, but the move gives Beijing access to semiconductors at least a generation ahead of its best technology.
Another front to watch: China-Japan relations
Tokyo has become more vocal about the link between its own security and stability in the Taiwan Strait, a position Beijing views as provocative. The Chinese leader will see how much he can push Trump on Taiwan, the self-governed democratic island Beijing claims as its own. That will make Taipei more vulnerable.
