What is now becoming painfully apparent is that US President Donald Trump can declare the war in the Middle East over as much as he likes, but it is not clear if the Iranian regime will let him check out.
“The Strait of Hormuz will certainly reopen, but not for you; it will be open for those who comply with the new laws of Iran,’’ Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Iranian parliament’s national security commission, boasted on X overnight.
What is also clear is that Australia does not have a clue what Mr Trump may do next, beyond keeping their eyes on his social media posts.
MORE:$3bn wiped: Aus homes vanish in Albo move
“Iran’s New Regime President, much less radicalised and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE!’’ Mr Trump claimed overnight.
“We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!! President DJT.”
Iran has now rejected the claim that a ceasefire offer was made.
Iran has all but closed the Hormuz Strait, which accounts for around 25 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil trade.
And the “friendly” nations it plans to allow to get their ships through? Pakistan and China. Just days ago, Iran also allowed 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
But what happens if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for weeks or even months?
Albo’s ‘strange’ speech
That prospect helps explain Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s strange national address last night, where he urged Australians to enjoy Easter – and to expect terrible times ahead.
It’s also why the United Arab Emirates has told the US and other Western allies it will participate in a multinational maritime taskforce to reopen the waterway.
This week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Mr Trump was willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.
“Build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us,” the US President posted on his Truth Social network.
“Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”
Such an outcome would have devastating consequences for Australia.
Australia directly imports only a small amount of crude oil from the Middle East, but up to 70 per cent of its refined fuel, including petrol and diesel, is sourced from Asian refineries that do rely on the Strait of Hormuz.
That is why many energy analysts expect Australia will be forced to introduce fuel restrictions after Easter, even if those measures are voluntary.
That might include encouraging public servants to work from home, using public transport, or even pumping up their tyres to improve fuel economy.
What was striking about UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s national address overnight was how similar the message was to Mr Albanese’s.
“I do have to level with people on this, this will not be easy,’’ Mr Starmer said.
Just hours earlier, Mr Albanese said, “The months ahead may not be easy. I want to be upfront about that.”
“So today, I want to reassure the British people that no matter how fierce this storm, we are well-placed to weather it and that we have a long-term plan,’’ the British PM said.
He sought to insist that “this is not our war” while laying the ground for action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“And the most effective way we can support the cost of living in Britain is to push for de-escalation in the Middle East and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which is such a vital route for energy,’’ Mr Starmer said.
Mr Albanese has said nothing about what contribution if any Australia may make to that endeavour yet, but it may be something to look out for in coming days.
