One Nation has surged past Labor in the first major poll since negative gearing and capital gains tax changes were announced as part of the controversial 2026-27 budget.
The poll by Roy Morgan found primary support for One Nation was at 32 per cent, while Labor held just 28.5 per cent of the vote.
On a two-party preferred basis, voters were almost split between Labor and the right-wing populist party, with some 49 per cent saying they would vote for One Nation, though Labor had a clear lead over the Coalition which sat 45 per cent.
A majority of Australians at 59 per cent said they disapproved of the job Anthony Albanese was doing, while 57 per cent disapproved of the job being done by Treasurer Jim Chalmers.
Only 40 per cent of Australians said they approved of the job Mr Albanese was doing, according to the poll.
Disapproval of the Prime Minister spanned both gender, every age group, and voters in almost all states, with Tasmania being the only holdout with a slim majority.
While Labor voters were found to be most motivated by value alignment, social justice, and fairness (42 per cent) and policy alignment or better policies (39 per cent), One Nation voters were driven by immigration reduction (58 per cent) and rejection of the major parties (52 per cent).
The poll comes after a contentious budget I which Labor has sought to reform housing investor tax credits – a proposition the Coalition has promised to repeal.
It also comes after One Nation secured its second only seat in the lower house after Farrer MP David Farley took the reigns from one-time Liberal leader, Sussan Ley.
On a two-party preferred basis, One Nation narrowly beat out the Coalition 51 per cent to 49, according to the poll.
In scenarios where either Labor or the Coalition squared off against One Nation, it would more than likely lead to a hung parliament.
The poll was conducted between May 13-14, and surveyed more than 2300 electors via text.
