When it comes to regularly finishing top four on the ladder, let alone winning premierships, A-grade talent is a must.
Geelong, the Brisbane Lions and Collingwood have been the teams to beat because they boast on-field “influencers” – those who get the job done when it matters most. Think Nick Daicos, Patrick Dangerfield, Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft.
As Carlton and Essendon languish near the foot of the ladder, it’s clear the Bombers do not (yet) have such an asset. As great as Zach Merrett has been, he’s never played in a winning final. Will the latest batch of draftees emerge? We’ll see.
Across town, it appears Patrick Cripps can no longer will the Blues over the line. As robust as Cripps has been, he’s only played in one (losing) preliminary final. Can Sam Walsh be that man? Will Jagga Smith morph into that role?
It shapes as a tough road ahead for both the Blues and Bombers, potentially still with more potholes than many of Victoria’s highways. So, who can bounce first and, perhaps, seriously chase for what would be a 17th premiership?Who would you rather be – Essendon or Carlton?
The new wave
One argument in favour of the Bombers, given by a senior football figure from a rival club who wished to remain anonymous, is that they are honest about bottoming out and can only rise from here.
“They know where they are really at,” the rival club figure said, pointing to coach Brad Scott’s comments on Saturday of having prioritised youth over experience in the past three years.
That’s backed up by the Bombers, who say they are looking to the future, and point to their overall average age (24.7 years – the second youngest in the AFL) and games played (81.7 – fourth least) as evidence.
However, they still had 14 first-round picks in their line-up against North Melbourne last weekend. And a further four didn’t play, including Dyson Sharp and Sullivan Robey. In that prism, should they still be this bad, and facing a record-equalling 17-straight losses?
Yes, they have turned another page (it’s been a big book), and, as club great Matthew Lloyd says, are banking on Jacob Farrow, who debuted against the Kangaroos, Robey and Sharp – all first-round selections last November – to become the nucleus of a new breed.
If that trio emerges and can join Nate Caddy, who rival talent bosses believe can become an A-grader, the exciting Isaac Kako and midfielder Sam Durham, the future could be bright.
For the Blues, are they destined for what former Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley dubs the “death zone”? That is, stuck mid-table – as St Kilda have been – neither bottoming out nor seriously challenging.
The Blues saw this year as one of consolidation, still aiming to make the top 10 (the wildcard round), as club president Robert Priestley reiterated on the weekend. They are mid-table for age (25.8) and eighth in average games played (98.6 games).
The emergence of Smith – a readymade senior talent taken at No.3 in the 2024 draft – and impressive defender Harry Dean – a father-son selection – provides optimism.
Dean, secured by the Blues last year with the help of the Bombers and their cluster of second-round picks, and Jacob Weitering can form a strong defensive core, while Smith and the recontracted Walsh should be the midfield guns over the next five years, although premiership Hawk Shane Crawford said there was no guarantee Walsh “would still be at his best” in five years, when Cripps may have retired.
A dozen players on Carlton’s 2026 list have made their debuts within the club’s past 29 games, Talor Byrne the latest of those. The former Vic Country playmaker has speed and good foot skills, something the Blues have too often lacked.
Their post-season plans
This is where it gets interesting. The Bombers are expected to be busy again during this year’s trade and draft periods, having dumped a batch of mid-career players over the past two years. Jade Gresham, Elijah Tsatas, Archie Perkins and Matt Guelfi are among those now fighting for their careers. Darcy Parish is a shadow of the player he once was, after a series of soft-tissue injuries.
They desperately need players who can consistently hit a target.
The Blues have Mitch McGovern, Nic Newman, Elijah Hollands, Jordan Boyd, Ollie Hollands, Lewis Young, Zac Williams, Nick Haynes and Adam Saad coming out of contract.
They have their eye on another star father-son selection, Cody Walker, although they will have to pay a higher price for him under expected draft changes by the AFL.
Blues chief executive Graham Wright says his club will have plenty of room under the salary cap to chase established talent, but Hinkley said this week the Blues may need to take another step back before rebounding.
“To get back up, you might have to step back down, and that just might be the reality of building your football club,” Hinkley told SEN.
Crawford said he feared the Blues’ board and players were not as aligned as they should be, pointing to how unified Geelong, the Lions and now Gold Coast were.
Why the woes?
Industry sources say the Bombers’ current problems are, in part, a result of failing to hit in the pandemic-compromised 2020 national draft, when they had three picks inside the top 10. At the time they were blindsided by the departures of Adam Saad and Joe Daniher.
Nik Cox, Perkins and Zach Reid, whether it be through injuries or other reasons, haven’t become the players the Bombers envisaged.
Acquiring free agents Ben McKay, Todd Goldstein, Xavier Duursma and Gresham in 2023 boosted a weak list. But Goldstein, now retired, was only a short-term option, while McKay, and his lack of physicality, is a lightning rod for criticism among supporters.
Voss stressed over summer this was a new-look Carlton side. But it’s been the same old, same old. Former Swans Ollie Florent and Will Hayward were disappointing last weekend, while the ball use of Elijah Hollands, the No.7 pick of the 2021 draft, remains a worry.
Their teams’ inability to consistently defend (strategically, even psychologically), and hit targets, has put Scott and counterpart Michael Voss under enormous pressure. As teammates in the Brisbane Lions’ early 2000s dynasty, they were tough and, when required, nasty. Essendon and Carlton – as they stand – are not a reflection of the way these two men once played. Each could be gone by the end of the season – contract or no contract.
Each club has a huge supporter base waiting to be galvanised. Much is often made of the influence Essendon’s powerful coteries have, while the Blues have rich benefactors keen to have their say. Neither side wants for much in terms of facilities and opportunity.
The verdict
Four industry sources agreed the Blues and Bombers always had an allure because of their rich histories, massive supporter bases, new facilities and off-field connections. But they were split when asked which list they would rather have in the medium term.
Crawford said he was worried about each club.
“I feel like both teams are going to be in the wilderness for a while,” he said.
“But there is hope – look at Chris Fagan and Brisbane. They were absolutely nowhere, and now they are winning premierships.”
He said he would favour the Blues “over the next few years” and “reluctantly” felt they were also closer to a flag.
Daniel Harford, a former Blue and Hawk, also favoured the Blues, declaring the Bombers are “almost in the worst position possible with compromised drafts coming and the lack of top-end talent”.
But Hinkley, perhaps, summed it up best when asked who he would rather coach.
“It’s a really difficult question because lots of things change,” he said.
“As soon as I say one or another, someone will link me and say I’m going to coach Essendon, or I’m going to coach Carlton. I’ll give you my opinion: I’d take Essendon. I think their youth … they’ve gone through the youth, they’ve got five or six picks in. Carlton have got some really good stuff coming, but just on face value …”
Then came the rider: “… I honestly think both clubs are a fair way away. That’s what I think.”
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