This is not a blip.
One Nation’s rise is real, and it is now stealing voters from Labor, not just the Liberals and Nationals. The loss of support to Pauline Hanson’s party will concern Anthony Albanese, but it will not surprise him.
Crunched by high inflation, spiralling petrol prices and more, voters are in a bad mood and they’re starting to take it out on the government as well as the opposition.
The March Resolve Political Monitor survey shows Labor losing 3 percentage points from its primary vote, the Coalition losing 1 point and One Nation rising 2. Those shifts are all within or just outside the poll’s 2.3 per cent margin of error, but it’s the trend that lays bare just how rapidly support for One Nation has grown.
After hovering around 6 to 7 per cent in the first half of 2025, the One Nation’s vote rose to 8 per cent in July 2025 and then took off in September, reaching double figures (12 per cent) for the first time. It has not looked back since.
The defection of Barnaby Joyce to the party in December coincided with a rise to 14 per cent and in the three months since then, One Nation’s primary vote has risen each time to now be at a record high of 24 per cent.
The next election is in 2028, which is more than enough time for Labor and the Coalition to try to win back some of the support they have lost.
The double leadership change for the Coalition – installing Angus Taylor and Matt Canavan as Liberal and Nationals leader, respectively – was made to arrest the dire slide in the opposition’s fortunes, and the two men have made clear they plan to tackle One Nation head-on.
But the official opposition, polling just 22 per cent compared to One Nation’s 24, faces a very long road back to restoring its fortunes. After all, in March last year, the Coalition’s primary vote was 37 per cent, 15 percentage points higher than it is now, and even a primary vote at that level would not guarantee a return to government.
Cost of living remains voters’ No.1 worry: 43 per cent of respondents to the poll nominated the issue as their primary concern. No other issue reached double figures, and this will not surprise either of the major parties.
The path back to political relevance for the Coalition will depend on its ability to construct a meaningful policy offering that addresses voters’ concerns about rising prices while critiquing the government’s performance.
Labor must address voter concerns more directly, and it has foreshadowed more cost-of-living relief in the next budget. But an interest rate rise on Tuesday, when the Reserve Bank next meets, will do the government no favours.
Fixing Australians’ cost-of-living pain is one thing; addressing the deep well of discontent among voters, and their distrust of politics and politicians, is another. That is a longer term problem, and a key driver behind One Nation’s surge in the polls and the rise of crossbench independents.
Exactly 50 per cent of voters say they will vote for minor parties and independents, a record in the Resolve poll and a far cry from days when the major parties each reliably won at least 40 per cent of voter support.
Thirty years since she entered parliament, Hanson is a known quantity and her disdain for the system and for politics as usual is flourishing in an age when voters are pessimistic about their future and the direction in which the country is headed.
The poll shows that just 20 per cent of voters think the national outlook will improve in the next 12 months, while 51 per cent of voters think it will get worse and 30 per cent think it will not change.
In July 2025, the first post-election survey conducted by Resolve, the figures were 25 per cent “get better”, 33 per cent “no change” and 42 per cent “get worse”, a big shift in less than 12 months and a clear sign that voters are cranky and fed up.
The figures for people’s personal outlook over the year ahead are similarly glum. In the next 12 months, 35 per cent expect life to get worse, and 41 per cent of people expect things to stay the same. Just 24 per cent expect things to improve.
Discontent and disillusionment are environments where Hanson thrives. There is a ceiling to her support, though. Some people will simply never vote for her, given her history of controversial stunts and overtly racist statements, but there is every chance One Nation will eat further into Labor’s support, at least in the short term.
Albanese and Labor are on notice.
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James Massola is chief political commentator. He was previously national affairs editor and South-East Asia correspondent. He has won Quill and Kennedy awards and been a Walkley finalist. Connect securely on Signal @jamesmassola.01Connect via X or email.