Samaras has been forced to clarify those figures. He told this masthead a more appropriate characterisation of the Indian diaspora’s vote for Labor across Australia in the May election was in the “mid-60s” on a two-party preferred basis, according to his research.
Price did not mention the data in her press conference, but sought to move the conversation onto the issue of immigration policy.
“While my comments were certainly clumsy, unfortunately the issue that’s of great concern, which I won’t be silenced on is the issue of mass migration in our country. And that was the prime issue that I that I was talking about,” she said.
“There has been overwhelming outreach from many members of the Australian community in support of me and particularly with this current situation … I want to thank those Australians who have reached out in support of me over the last few days.”
Price did not apologise, despite close allies in the party privately advising her to say sorry and end the matter. Ley’s party allies were still trying to facilitate an apology on Wednesday morning.
Hours before Price gave her press conference, she shared a Facebook post from conservative online commentator Rukshan Fernando, who said: “Senator Jacinta Price’s comments about Indian Australians were not racist in any way, and she should not apologise to anyone.”
“Her observations about Australia’s changing demographics are grounded in real-world observations and, importantly, data,” he claimed.
But the data Price used to justify her comments has been walked back by the pollster. Samaras first raised the 85 per cent figure on an X livestream hosted by controversial political activist Drew Pavlou, who frequently comments about immigration on his account. It had not been published in any report.
“Eighty-five per cent of the Indian diaspora voted for the Labor Party at the last election, or thereabouts. It varies across the country,” Samaras said. “In our polling, whenever we poll them, they’re about that, two-party preferred.”
The figure has since been quoted by far-right social media accounts and in posts by March for Australia, the group that organised last month’s anti-immigration rallies and targeted Indian Australians in their promotion flyers.
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Asked to clarify those figures on Wednesday, Samaras said: “The vote is as high as 85 per cent in some places, but can be as low as in the 60s in others.”
He did not give specific examples, but said that RedBridge would publish a report on its election findings soon. Samaras said the data was based on interviewing people from a range of communities, tracking them over a period of time, and combining the information with polling booth results.
Samaras said the more accurate reading of his findings from the most recent election was an average Indian diaspora vote for Labor in the mid-60s, on a two-party-preferred basis. That refers to which major party receives a vote after preferences are distributed. The national two-party-preferred vote at the May election was 55 per cent to Labor.
Veteran polling analyst Peter Brent on X described Samaras’ initial claim as “preposterous” and “bullshit”. He cited data from former YouGov pollster Shaun Ratcliff, who collaborates with Samaras, showing about 45 per cent of Australians with South Asian heritage gave their first preference vote to Labor at the last election, and 34 per cent to the Coalition.
Another data set from the Australian Election Study shows that, between 1987 and 2022, 45.7 per cent of the Indian diaspora voted Liberal and 42.4 per cent voted Labor.
Hawke, the manager of opposition business, texted his senior colleagues on Wednesday morning with a Twitter link to that alternative data.
“Team, given the ongoing public demonisation of the Australian Indian community – from many now based on this one 85 per cent figure from a Labor-aligned pollster – there is plenty of information available to demonstrate this successful migrant community is like any other that have come here: open to both major parties,” he wrote.
“This is more in line with reality. Worth continuing to stick up for all our supporters from Indian Sub Continent and South Asian communities nationally there are hundreds of thousands/millions of them.”
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About 10 per cent of voters in Hawke’s north-west Sydney electorate of Mitchell have an Indian background. The Liberal MP suffered a 6.7 per cent swing at the May election, making his seat marginal. Hawke’s office declined to comment.
The Coalition has been in damage control with the Indian community since last Wednesday, when Price first told the ABC that the government was bringing in Indian migrants to bolster its vote.
While Price quickly backtracked on her remarks, her refusal to apologise has upset Indian Australians, infuriated many Liberal colleagues and put pressure on Ley’s leadership.
Shadow attorney-general Julian Leeser and the NSW Liberals and Nationals have since apologised to Indian Australians for Price’s comments.
Senator Jane Hume, who fell out with Ley after being dumped from shadow cabinet, claimed the Price saga had been “so poorly handled, it’s now blown out of control”.
She told Sky News on Wednesday that Ley or her office, not Hawke, should have spoken to Price: “I think that the leader’s office would probably now acknowledge that if the leader wanted an outcome she probably should have picked up the phone herself rather than sending a henchman.”
