The question is two-fold.
Who would Cameron Munster, in the depths of an Origin defensive grind, rather have running at him? Haumole Olakau’atu or Dylan Lucas?
There’s only one answer. There’s been a few theories and no definitive answer on the Olakau’atu axing that no-one, including the monstrous Manly back-rower, saw coming.
But the alternative question, who would Munster and Kalyn Ponga rather attack against, is as instructive as any.
NSW coach Laurie Daley has given little away on Olakau’atu’s axing while talking up right-edge back-row replacement Lucas. But the Blues are expecting an even quicker contest at the MCG and have selected accordingly.
Payne Haas coming in for Jacob Saifiti, Api Koroisau getting the nod as a back-up dummy-half and Daley promising Ethan Strange will see game-time as bench utility, potentially at lock, makes for an even more mobile Blues team than in Origin I.
It makes a lot of sense when small bench forwards Cameron Murray and Victor Radley helped stem the bleeding of an awful first 30 minutes in Sydney. So did holding the ball.
Lucas (184cm, 96kg) – 12 centimetres shorter and 17 kilos lighter than Olakau’atu (196cm, 113kg) – offers a more mobile body in defence, on a right edge that Ponga and co targeted early in game one.
The Knights back-rower moves better laterally in defence, runs off Ponga in clubland, and will, so the Blues’ theory goes, be better placed to keep a lid on the Queensland No.1.
NSW are unfazed about Lucas switching from his usual left edge to the right on debut, even with Olakau’atu being a natural right-sided player with a left-to-right pass he’s developed under Kieran Foran.
But Phil Gould, the most successful coach in Blues history, is flabbergasted by the decision, particularly with an Origin rookie.
“I love Dylan Lucas as a player and he’s certainly Origin-class,” he said on his Six Tackles with Gus podcast.
“But I think it would be grossly unfair to play him on the right side. I’m not sure about the balance of the team and I cannot understand how Haumole Olakau’atu isn’t in the best 13 players for NSW … it shocks me greatly.”
Any way you split it, dropping Olakau’atu is a particularly tough call (which Daley has stressed), based on both being the form back-rower of 2026 and his Origin I output.
The suggestion his kick-chase efforts were a concern within Blues camp doesn’t really wash. If anything, it was a highlight of Olakau’atu’s game as Nathan Cleary bombed repeatedly to Selwyn Cobbo and he led the chase with legs tackles.
The one occasion he and centre Kotoni Staggs were found out and Ponga sent Cobbo galloping downfield, it was Staggs turning in that created the disjointed defensive line.
As Daley has spoken more than once to “the style of footy we want to play” in explaining Lucas getting the nod, Andrew Johns did the same on Wednesday through the Olakau’atu lens.
“I was really surprised [at Olakau’atu being dropped]. I thought Haumole was one of our best forwards,” Johns said on Nine’s Freddy and the Eighth on Wednesday.
“I thought his effort areas and kick-chase in particular, he was leading it. Haumole’s not the type of player like a Kurt Capewell or a Reuben Cotter on the edge, who just work and work and work.
“He’s an explosive player. You only go to him if there’s space there. You’re not going to him 15 times a half. You’re going to him half a dozen or eight times during the game, where you say to him, if you think you can get at Munster one-on-one, you just tell them.
“Maybe ask Cameron Munster who he’d rather mark?”
The sight of Olakau’atu crippled by cramp as an ugly pass from James Tedesco bombed a 66th-minute try was especially unfortunate.
On Manly’s right edge, Olakau’atu has 80 minutes in him. An hour of ball-in-play Origin footy, sped into hyperdrive with the expanded six-again remit, dials back his minutes.
Lucas is the fittest player in Newcastle’s forward pack and fast emerging as an elite hole-runner on the Knights edge.
As former NSW coach Brad Fittler noted alongside Johns, Lucas’ bigger motor “allows Daley to rotate his middles and gives him an extra rotation”, theoretically without worrying about his edge back-rower running out of gas.
NSW got several of their most-contentious selections right for Origin I, especially on their bench, but were still staring down a 1-0 series deficit until Ponga was sent off.
And with Olakau’atu’s axing the only change not triggered by injury or availability, the question looms large. Who would Cameron Munster rather have running at him?
