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Opinion
If President Donald Trump succeeds in closing a “deal” with Iran, the more likely ultimate outcome in the months ahead is that it will fail – just as the “deal” he made to end the war in Gaza is failing. No Nobel likely.
Trump has made grand claims – that Iran will fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and will send all its highly enriched uranium to the US and has pledged never to make a nuclear bomb – but Iran has not publicly accepted those terms. Iran demands the US unfreeze tens of billions of dollars in Iran’s assets, but Trump has rejected that. Will the deal also ensure that Israel’s expanded campaign in Lebanon is halted?
Trump has come close to sabotaging his Iran deal by demanding that Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia sign the Abraham Accords and recognise the state of Israel. The Saudis made it explicitly clear, when the Gaza deal was signed last year, that there was no way they could do this without progress on a Palestinian state. And there is no way Israel’s Netanyahu is moving towards a Palestinian state. His vision is for controlling all the land “from the river to the sea” – for Israel. What keeps the Arab states out of the Abraham Accords is not the Iran war but that there has been no progress on a Palestinian state.
In Trump’s Gaza peace deal, basic provisions have lapsed. Hamas has not been disarmed. The work of the Board of Peace is stalled. Israel has expanded its physical control over the territory. There is no good end in sight for Gaza.
With the war still on, Trump talked to his cabinet for 10 minutes on something really important to him: the reflecting pool he is rebuilding between the Washington and Lincoln monuments in the capital. Pete Hegseth, the secretary of war, tied the president’s endeavours all together for us. “Washington and Lincoln … stood up in historic fashion and delivered for the American people. And, when you step back and look at 47 years of what Iran waged — war against us and our people — there’s only one man, over the course of both presidencies, who has stood up and said they will never get a nuclear weapon.”
Trump’s standing today with the American people is treacherous. Only 30 per cent of voters believe the decision to go to war with Iran was the right one. His approval rating has collapsed, heading towards 35 per cent. In 44 of the 50 states, Trump’s net approval rating is underwater, even in Trump states such as Texas (-19), Ohio (-18), and Florida (-9). On major issues of concern to Americans – foreign policy, the economy, inflation – Trump’s performance is not trusted. Consumer confidence is at a record low.
Coming in November are the midterm elections that will determine the balance of Trump’s presidency. You would think he would be obsessed on what control of Congress means for what he can – or cannot – achieve. But Trump cannot be bothered with that. “I don’t care about the midterms,” Trump told his cabinet. A few days earlier, Trump told reporters, “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situations.” The ads are in the can for Democrats to stream everywhere.
There is a second war Trump is waging – and losing: retribution against his enemies.
Trump has purged two sitting Republican senators. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who voted to convict Trump for his role in the January 6 insurrection, was defeated in pre-selection by Trump’s candidate. Last week Trump ended the career of veteran John Cornyn by endorsing Ken Paxton, who has endured impeachment, indictment and erasure by his wife from their marriage. Trump supported Paxton for his mongrel MAGA loyalty. Paxton’s extremism means that safe Republican seat – and control of the Senate – are now up in the air.
Trump’s acting attorney general, Todd Blanche, who was Trump’s personal lawyer in trials in New York, established a special fund of $US1.776 billion (nice number!) to compensate political victims, including those prosecuted for their attack on the Capitol. Senators ran for their lives that day. A judge has put a hold on the fund’s operations.
Republican senators were so angry at Trump’s decisions that they left town – leaving the $US1 billion he wants for his glorious ballroom being erected at the White House twisting in the wind, unenacted.
The Justice Department also announced that E. Jean Carroll, who won a civil case against Trump for sexual assault, and was awarded damages and penalties against Trump of tens of millions of dollars, is being investigated for perjury. Carroll is now accused of lying by the man whose testimony under oath did not prevent his conviction for assaulting her.
Another Trump spectacle is his erection of a cage fight arena on the South Lawn of the White House. The last time violent combat exploded on those hallowed grounds was when the British were at war with the US and burned the mansion in 1814.
There is so much more on the president’s mind. Trump wants Congress to change the law so that his face can be on a new $250 note to commemorate 1776. A memento to cherish.
Another judge has just ruled that, without the approval of Congress, Trump’s name cannot be affixed to the John F. Kennedy Centre in Washington. If Trump were a Shakespearean character on that stage, would the Bard’s tragedies signal curtains for Trump’s presidency?
Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.
Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.From our partners
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