It wouldn’t be Origin without an injury scare or team shake-up. And this time, it’s the Blues turn to deal with the upheaval of losing their five-eighth and kicking x-factor.
I really feel for Mitchell Moses. The feedback I got from both he and Nathan Cleary was about how excited they were to be playing together as halves.
It’s a shame that for all their dominance at club level, they’ve still played only one game together in the NSW six and seven jerseys.
But Ethan Strange comes in with a serious run threat and he won’t be overawed – he’s been in camp for 10 days and last year’s Kangaroos tour was massive for his development as a young half.
In wet weather, his left-foot step will be particularly dangerous if he, Reece Robson and James Tedesco can target Queensland around the ruck.
But where he does his best work is on the left-edge alongside Canberra teammate and enforcer Hudson Young. Both the Raiders boys will be targeting Sam Walker with their incredible footwork and power running.
NSW will miss Moses’ long kicking most. It leaves Cleary taking on basically the entire kicking game because Robson doesn’t really have a long boot out of dummy-half and Strange has mostly been the secondary kicker with a few bombs here and there for Canberra.
The Blues’ strongest sides have always had a big, strong running five-eighth – Laurie Daley, Brad Fittler, Trent Barrett and Braith Anasta.
Cleary is obviously the perfect on-ball No.7 to balance that combination and given where he’s at in his career, I think he’ll lap up the extra responsibility and pressure.
When it comes to the Origin arena, more than any other contest, these clashes come down to the big moments and half chances.
An NRL grand final can have teams that have been combining for years and a big spectrum of players in terms of skill and talent. When it’s NSW taking on Queensland, every player is elite, and those half-chances decide the game.
Can you take yours? And can you stop the opposition taking theirs?
More often than not, it’s the spine players creating those chances and your strike weapons finishing them off. When it comes to the starting fullback, five-eighth, halfback and hooker, I think Queensland have a slight edge based on what they’ve done in the Origin arena.
Or in the case of rookies Strange and Walker, what they bring in on debut.
If I were to rank each spine member out of 10, here’s how the two sides break down.
Kalyn Ponga: 8/10
Cameron Munster: 10/10
Sam Walker: 7/10
Harry Grant: 10/10
James Tedesco: 9/10
Ethan Strange: 7/10
Nathan Cleary: 9/10
Reece Robson: 7/10
*Scores based on previous Origin performances
But for all the individual brilliance, it’s as a collective where the spine matters most in Origin – because again, it’s the best of the best. And across all the things that matter in Origin – from running and kicking games to poise under pressure and combinations – I think it’s a playmaking dead heat.
NSW have the game managing and defensive edge, not to mention Cleary’s long kicking game. But Queensland are more creative, have the fantastic Melbourne Storm combination between Grant and Munster, and have stood up when it counts most on this stage before.
So how will it all play out once the clock strikes 8:05pm on Wednesday night?
How do you win a wet-weather Origin?
With a week’s worth of Sydney rain and a slippery surface at Accor Stadium, I think NSW has the advantage of the conditions, especially on the back of any set-restarts referee Ashley Klein blows.
At the ruck, that means Tedesco, Robson and Strange need to be a real threat, and at the other end of the spectrum, the dummy-half and early tackle runs of Brian To’o, Tedesco and Tolu Koula is stronger than Queensland’s options for those crucial yardage plays.
How do you win a wet weather Origin?
First and foremost, kick early, kick long and kick often. Cleary has the best long kicking game in this contest now that Moses is out.
Neither side should be risking errors in their own half, at least early on. And for mine as the No.7, my thinking was always “get to your own 40-metre line”.
Once you make that landmark, kick long and put the other team under pressure with your defence, it doesn’t matter if it’s the third or fourth tackle and you’re potentially sacrificing an early attacking shot from around halfway.
Especially in those first 15 minutes, the halfback’s mindset has got to be “what’s my next kick?”
This series opener won’t be played with much width. The centres and wingers have to know where their sidelines are or they’ll end up being slid over them.
We’ll see the game played between the scrumlines – around 15 to 20 metres in from the sideline – and again, I think this suits the Blues given Haumole Olakau’atu and Young are more powerful than Queensland’s Kurt Capewell and Reuben Cotter on the edges.
If the Maroons get decent field position, Sam Walker’s short kicking game is a real threat. So too Ponga running down the left edge where Munster and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow can create something out of nothing.
The Blues’ right-edge of Kotoni Staggs and Brian To’o have to be on their game defensively, just as much with ball in hand.
How both coaches use their bench is important and a bit of an unknown given the six-man interchange rules. And we might just be hailing the inclusion of Cameron Murray and Victor Radley – with their light feet and great pass selection – as a masterstroke come fulltime.
As always in Origin, it’s the big moments that matter most, and the big-game players who will decide them.
Joey’s tip: NSW by two.
First try-scorer: James Tedesco
Man of the match: James Tedesco
Andrew Johns is an Immortal, a Newcastle great and a commentator for Channel Nine