That red carpet at Beijing Capital International Airport must be worn out by now. US President Donald Trump used it last week during his three-day state visit to China. A few days later, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin used it too, for a visit marking the 25th anniversary of a friendship and co-operation treaty between Russia and China.
Like Trump, Putin received a guard of honour, a 21-gun salute, and an enthusiastic welcome by happy Chinese children waving flags. The Russian president was met by Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in line with standard diplomatic protocol. Trump got a more senior welcomer – Vice President Han Zheng, who outranks the foreign minister in China. It was a subtle gesture from China’s President Xi Jinping, acknowledging the rarity of a visit from the US president.
The West has imposed widespread sanctions against Russia in an attempt to isolate Putin over his illegal invasion of Ukraine. They have been unsuccessful. Russia remains in control of the key ingredients of success: food, fuel, materials and scientific and engineering talent. And it’s not just China that engages economically with Russia but other populous countries such as India, Brazil, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia and Turkey — a NATO member.
A procession of world leaders have made a beeline for Beijing in the past six months, including Emmanuel Macron of France, Mark Carney of Canada, and Keir Starmer of Britain, but Putin stands out for the sheer number of meetings with Xi. The two men have been meeting regularly since Xi became president in 2013, so much so that analysts don’t agree on the number – it’s more than 40 and perhaps as many as 60 times. Xi chose Russia as his first foreign destination when he became leader. He was one of the few world leaders to attend the Sochi Winter Olympics the following year. When Russia was hit with US sanctions for invading Crimea immediately after the Olympics, Xi ordered Chinese businesses not to drive a hard bargain in their negotiations with their Russian counterparts. He wanted to avoid Russian resentment and fear of being taken advantage of in its time of weakness. Xi’s actions helped build trust with his fellow autocrat.
Xi and Putin are nearly the same age. Both regard the collapse of the USSR as a strategic calamity because it encouraged the US to throw its weight around the world. Both have tamed their countries’ oligarchs. “I have a similar personality to yours,” Xi once told Putin. Both believe in tough leadership. Xi has said that one reason the USSR collapsed was that “In the end, nobody was a real man. Nobody came out to resist.”
Whereas Trump and Xi released separate readouts but did not issue a joint statement, Putin and Xi released a joint statement nearly 10,000 words long. They agreed to jointly build a new railroad link between Zabaikalsk in Russia’s Far East and Manzhouli in China’s Inner Mongolia region. That area is the busiest rail checkpoint on their border but it currently has incompatible railway gauges. Once finished, it will add nearly 50 additional pairs of freight trains a day. Russia later announced it would sell 10-year government bonds denominated in Chinese yuan. No agreement was concluded on a matter of great importance to Russia, however – the planned Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which would more than double its current gas exports to China, already the world’s biggest gas importer. The ambitious project would enable the supply of gas equivalent to one-third of Russia’s exports to Europe prior to the war in Ukraine.
Unlike the Arab petrostates, which sell hydrocarbons and buy carbohydrates, Russia sells China both hydrocarbons and carbohydrates. It will increase its agricultural exports through joint infrastructure projects including grain terminals, food processing plants and supply routes to China.
In addition to personal chemistry and economic alignment, there is a strategic alignment between the two giants. Some aspects of their military co-operation remain classified, as neither country is transparent with its own citizens, let alone the rest of the world. However, it is clear that each country sees the other as a stable strategic rear, ensuing a relatively low military presence across their vast land border. Russia left its border with China effectively undefended when it invaded Ukraine in February 2022. That likely wouldn’t have happened in previous years. Russia has allowed China to buy some of its most advanced fighter aircraft and missile defence systems. It also seems more accepting of Chinese population flows near its Far East.
Advanced Russian submarine technology can help China overcome a key vulnerability; its submarines are relatively noisy, perhaps noisier than 1970s-era Russian submarines. US naval researchers claim that Russia is helping China develop a quieter propulsion system for its boats. Neither can match the United States, of course; its Ohio-class nuclear ballistic missile submarines are quieter than Russia’s current submarines. Both countries have similar geographic vulnerabilities. Russia has a vast landmass but it is vulnerable to naval interdiction by US allies and partners. China has a vast coastline but it is vulnerable to interdiction if it tries to directly access the Pacific Ocean.
Both countries co-operate to overcome their vulnerabilities. President Xi plans to visit North Korea next week or the week after. A loose coalition called CRINKs may be developing – China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. That red carpet can expect to see a lot more use before it is replaced.
Professor Clinton Fernandes is in the Future Operations Research Group at the University of NSW. His latest book is Turbulence: Australian Foreign Policy in the Trump Era.
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Professor Clinton Fernandes is part of University of NSW’s Future Operations Research Group which analyses the threats, risks and opportunities that military forces will face in the future. He is a former intelligence officer in the Australian Army.