The federal government’s primary vote has slumped 3 percentage points to just 29 per cent after Labor broke a slew of promises on tax policy, but support has flowed to One Nation rather than the Coalition following the release of the pivotal “tough decisions” budget last Tuesday.
The government was marked down by voters for breaking election promises not to touch tax breaks for negative gearing or capital gains, with 36 per cent of people saying their view of Labor had been damaged, 31 per cent saying their view had not changed, just 14 per cent saying it had improved and 18 per cent undecided.
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor will be buoyed by the news that he is now voters’ preferred prime minister, leading Prime Minister Anthony Albanese 33-30, with 37 per cent of people undecided, in a poll conducted by Resolve Political Monitor exclusively for this masthead in the budget’s wake.
As recently as February, the prime minister enjoyed a commanding 38-22 lead over the opposition leader.
But it’s not all bad news for the government after Albanese decided to spend some of the considerable political capital Labor accrued at the last election. Some of the most controversial measures in its most ambitious budget to date are winning more support than rejection from voters, though a high number of those polled remain undecided.
The poll found 36 per cent of voters supported removing the 50 per cent CGT discount, with 21 per cent opposed and 42 per cent undecided, while 35 per cent supported restricting negative gearing and 21 per cent opposed, with 44 per cent undecided.
Similarly, cutting the National Disability Insurance Scheme to save $36 billion over four years was backed by 39 per cent of poll respondents and opposed by 24 per cent, with 37 per cent undecided. Increasing tax rates on trusts was backed by 34 per cent and opposed by 23 per cent, with 43 per cent were undecided.
Taken together, the findings, contained in the Resolve Political Monitor conducted for this masthead after the budget from May 13 to 16, underscore the potential risks and rewards of Labor deciding to break its promises and go big on tax reform after four years of cautious government.
The poll surveyed 1800 voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 per cent.
This masthead has chosen not to publish the two-party-preferred vote between the Coalition and Labor because of the difficulties in distributing preferences, following the huge surge in support for One Nation.
Labor’s primary vote slipped 3 percentage points to 29 per cent this month, while support for the Coalition remained steady at 23 per cent, which is close to a record low in the Resolve poll.
Support for One Nation rose 2 percentage points to 24 per cent, while support for the Greens remained steady on 12 per cent.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson is now the most “likeable” politician in the county, with a net performance rating of plus 12 percentage points. Taylor is in second place with a net rating of plus 11 percentage points.
In contrast, Albanese is languishing on a net likeability rating of minus 13 points, one point worse than last month, while Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ rating took a massive hit, falling from neutral territory to minus 9 points in just one month.
Labor’s decision to break promises in this budget has hurt its standing with older Australians, property investors and property owners, with about 40 per cent in each of these categories saying the broken promises had damaged their view of the party. Younger Australians and renters – those targeted in a budget designed to repair intergenerational inequities – were less hostile.
Just 24 per cent of voters said the budget would be good for their household, the lowest level recorded in Resolve, while 35 per cent said it would be bad and 41 per cent were undecided.
But on many other measures – including whether the budget would be good for rebuilding a healthy budget, for big and small business and for job creation – more voters said it would be good than that it would be bad, although many were undecided.
Resolve pollster Jim Reed said it was all but inevitable that trust in Labor would fall after breaking promises, but the government could be forgiven by voters if it could explain the reasons for the changes.
“That’s exactly what happened with the change to stage 3 tax cuts. The alternative is an unclear objective, a lack of efficacy or a negative impact from the change, and then the broken promise becomes a real point of anger. That’s what happened to Julia Gillard after her carbon tax promise,” he said.
“We’ve yet to see public opinion play out. The government did well to give notice of these significant changes, but it remains to be seen if they can fully explain their significance. And whether the opposition can still prosecute a campaign of their own.”
On Sunday, Chalmers said he was not surprised the government’s standing had taken a hit in a poll published in the News Corp tabloids.
“I’d be more surprised if there was a bounce, frankly. We didn’t do this to get a bounce in the polls, we did it to get a boost in first home ownership, particularly among younger Australians who’ve been locked out … this budget is full of hard decisions,” he told the ABC’s Insiders progam, underscoring the fact the government expected a backlash.
Voters also marked down the performance of Albanese and Taylor over the last month. Just 34 per cent of voters said the prime minister was doing a “good” or “very good” job, down 3 percentage points in a month, 56 per cent said he was doing a “poor” or “very poor” job and 10 per cent were undecided.
Taylor scored a 37 per cent “good” or “very good” rating, down 4 points on last month, while 29 per cent said his performance was either “poor” or “very poor”. A much higher proportion of people, at 34 per cent, said they were undecided about the opposition leader’s performance.
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James Massola is chief political commentator. He was previously national affairs editor and South-East Asia correspondent. He has won Quill and Kennedy awards and been a Walkley finalist. Connect securely on Signal @jamesmassola.01Connect via X or email.