Updated ,first published
What a difference a year makes.
A months-long surge in support for One Nation has propelled the party to a historic first-ever win of a lower house seat in the federal parliament, with candidate David Farley joining Barnaby Joyce in Canberra.
Less than two months after the party won a swag of seats in the South Australian state election, One Nation’s march from the far-right fringe to the political mainstream has been cemented with this win, and triggered a political earthquake in Canberra.
By 8pm on Saturday, just two hours after the poll closed, Farley was crowned the resounding winner. Farley, as of 10pm, had 41.8 per cent of the primary vote, far ahead of Michelle Milthorpe in second with 25.8 per cent – and led 59.4 per cent to 40.6 per cent on a two candidate preferred (TCP) basis.
Liberal and Nationals candidates Raissa Butkowski and Brad Robertson were thrashed, with the Liberal vote collapsing. Both Butkowski and Robertson had won around 10 per cent of the vote and preferenced Farley ahead of Milthorpe, further boosting the One Nation candidate.
The voters in Farrer have sent a clear message to Canberra. Get stuffed.
Liberal treasury spokesman Tim Wilson, who spent the day in a polling booth in the border town twin city of Echuca-Moama, said: “The result matters far less than the need to listen to it, and what lessons are learned from it.”
“People are clearly doing it tough and on the Moama booth it was clear voters wanted someone to be their representative, not their ruler, and they want their MP to fight for them”, he said.
In other words, voters are furious and have extended to the Coalition – and Labor, though the party did not run a candidate – a giant middle finger by voting in large numbers for the most anti-establishment candidate possible, Farley surging ahead of Milthorpe.
Barnaby Joyce, a former Nationals MP and deputy prime minister, declared the Australian people had not just spoken, they had “roared”. And Joyce had a message for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
“Western Sydney, here we come.”
It wasn’t supposed to be like this for the community independent.
At the 2025 federal election, Milthorpe came second behind veteran incumbent Sussan Ley, securing 43.8 per cent of the two-party preferred vote and a 10.2 per cent swing to her and away from the now former Liberal MP.
One Nation’s candidate, Emma Hicks, won just 6.6 per cent of the vote, behind Labor’s Glen Hyde (15.1 per cent) and just ahead of the Greens’ Richard Hendrie (4.9 per cent).
But from the moment Ley announced her resignation after losing the Liberal leadership to Angus Taylor, Coalition strategists feared the seat would be lost. And so it proved.
Despite running a poor campaign that included contradicting One Nation’s immigration policy and the embarrassing revelation that he tried to run for Labor in 2022, Farley has been elected as a One Nation MP.
And that’s because voters are furious with the major parties and politics-as-usual.
Byelections tend to favour the incumbent, regardless of whether the party holding the seat is in opposition or in government.
In the last 25 years, there have been 26 byelections and just four of them have been won by a person or party that did not already hold the seat. This is the fifth.
For the Coalition, losing Farrer is yet another disaster for an opposition that has been in disarray since the 2022 election.
And for One Nation, this result begs the question: just how high can support for One Nation go?
The party’s rise is real and the threat to the Coalition is more immediate in the seats it clings to in the regions.
But as the party’s performance in Farrer’s largest city, Albury, showed, One Nation is also picking up votes there now, too. And as Joyce made clear, One Nation is coming for Labor next.
James Massola is chief political commentator. He was previously national affairs editor and South-East Asia correspondent. He has won Quill and Kennedy awards and been a Walkley finalist. Connect securely on Signal @jamesmassola.01Connect via X or email.