Opposition clubs expect top-10 draftees Elijah Tsatas, Archie Perkins and potentially Nik Cox not to be at Essendon next year as the Bombers’ list transformation in the post-Adrian Dodoro era continues.
Cox, who has dealt with concussion issues and various other injuries, played his first AFL game since late 2024 in Saturday’s 64-point loss to the Brisbane Lions, after which rising star forward Nate Caddy told 3AW he was sick of losing and the club being mired in “mediocrity”.
A source familiar with the situation, not prepared to comment publicly on player movement, told The Age that a Victorian club was closely monitoring Cox, including sending recruiting staff to the Gold Coast to watch the 200-centimetre utility play in the VFL on April 18.
Essendon are deep into a rebuild under Brad Scott, and sit second-last with a miserable 1-7 win-loss record, ahead of only Richmond.
The Bombers infamously last won a final in 2004, and have not qualified for the finals since 2021.
This masthead contacted Essendon for comment, as well as the management groups for Caddy, Tsatas, Perkins and Cox.
List boss and ex-Eagle Matt Rosa differed with his vision for the club to his predecessor Dodoro, who departed two years ago. Dodoro’s plan, according to a source with knowledge of his intentions, was to retain draft picks, but not enter a rebuild – and before he exited Tullamarine he had designs on trying to recruit ex-Giant-turned-Magpie Harry Perryman.
The Bombers lost ruckman Sam Draper to the Lions in unrestricted free agency last year after he slipped out of their top earners, meaning he was not restricted, which would have enabled Essendon to match any offer.
Injury-prone 2020 club champion Jordan Ridley also considered pursuing a trade to the Lions before pledging his future to the red and black.
The Bombers were content with out-of-favour defender Jayden Laverde walking to the Giants, where they traded Jake Stringer a year earlier, while Dylan Shiel – another Dodoro recruit – retired after being delisted.
Three rival recruiters, who spoke to this masthead on the condition of anonymity, were impressed with Essendon’s recent drafting, including Sullivan Robey, Jacob Farrow, Dyson Sharp, Isaac Kako, Angus Clarke, Zak Johnson, Caddy and Archie Roberts.
But they were less flattering on the Bombers’ Perkins, Cox and Tsatas selections.
One talent scout from a non-Victorian club said he would not have used a first-round pick on Perkins in that draft, querying his decision-making and desire, but understanding why he appealed from a physical and athletic standpoint.
Perkins, who attended Brighton Grammar School and played for Sandringham Dragons, also made it clear pre-draft that he preferred not to relocate interstate.
He has played 105 matches and shown glimpses of his upside as a hybrid forward-midfielder. Two of his better performances were against Hawthorn, including amassing 20 touches and three goals in 2023, and 24 disposals and two goals in 2024.
There is no dialogue between the parties about extending Perkins’ contract beyond this season.
Perkins spent the past three games playing for Essendon’s reserves, while Tsatas returned to VFL level last week as well – winning 34 disposals and 10 clearances – after being the sole player dropped from the Bombers’ heavy Anzac Day defeat to Collingwood.
The three AFL recruiters noted that Rosa and national recruiting manager Rob Forster-Knight’s team were one of the hardest-working in the competition.
Essendon have increased their investment in the list and recruiting area in the past three years, employing more full-timers, hiring experienced scouts Rohan O’Brien and Neil Ross, and putting a greater focus on analytics, according to another source.
However, previously prized selections Tsatas, Perkins and Cox are all out of contract at season’s end, after the Bombers delisted another first-round selection, Ben Hobbs, at the end of last year.
Cox, Perkins and defender Zach Reid, who re-signed until the end of 2028 and has been the best-performed of the trio despite injuries, were selections eight to 10 in the COVID-impacted 2020 draft class.
Essendon’s recruiting team was not unanimous, but chose Tsatas over Mattaes Phillipou with the No.5 pick in the 2022 draft, after ruling out Bailey Humphrey and Reuben Ginbey for different reasons, a source familiar with the club’s thinking told this masthead.
The expectation across the league is that Tsatas could be headed down the same path as Hobbs, who is averaging 29 disposals, 13 contested possessions and eight clearances in four VFL games for Port Melbourne this season.
The Tsatas camp explored his options last year, but there was limited interest, and the Bombers were unwilling to trade him, another source familiar with negotiations said.
The prospect of the 21-year-old midfielder being delisted is viewed as a genuine scenario, barring a dramatic change of fortunes.
A leaked photo of Brisbane’s whiteboard analysis ahead of last week’s match listed strengths and weaknesses next to Bombers players’ names. They wrote “fumbly” next to Tsatas. The 19-gamer’s kicking technique, specifically his ball drop, has been a talking point, but various sources said they felt it had improved.
Tsatas’ defensive accountability, intensity and ground-ball work under pressure were viewed as greater issues, while his strength as a junior to transition from inside to outside a contest has not translated in the same way.
But he has no trouble finding the Sherrin.
Tsatas is close friends with North Melbourne’s George Wardlaw, who he played with at Oakleigh Chargers, but sources believe the Kangaroos don’t need another midfielder.
Caddy’s frank post-match remarks about Essendon’s prolonged struggles raised eyebrows across the industry, to the extent that former Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley said on SEN that the Bombers should be worried.
“That young man is talking like someone who’s got some real concerns and doubts about the journey that they’re on at Essendon,” Hinkley said.
Another source, who is unconvinced about the Bombers’ direction, said there was some luck in AFL list management, highlighting how Ben McKay chose Essendon over Hawthorn, who instead recruited the better-performed Tom Barrass and Josh Battle the next year.
The Hawks also traded for ex-Bomber Massimo D’Ambrosio, who has blossomed into a top-tier wingman, while key forward Patrick Voss has thrived at Fremantle after Essendon delisted him.
Cat tracking towards new deal
Former Sun and Blue Jack Martin has resurrected his career at Geelong the past two seasons off the AFL scrapheap, and he is on track to continue playing into next year.
Injuries interrupted Martin’s five seasons at Ikon Park, and he also dealt with calf issues in his early months at the Cattery after inking a two-year deal.
However, the 31-year-old forward, who has played 171 matches, has barely missed a game since breaking into Geelong’s senior side in round 13 last year, including being selected for the grand final.
Martin has a games trigger in his contract that he is expected to hit, which would automatically roll him over to the 2027 season.
Frampton fits the bill
Preliminary discussions have started between Collingwood and in-form defender Billy Frampton’s management on a new deal.
The Magpies handed over a future third-round pick to Adelaide in exchange for Frampton in the 2022 trade period, which has proven a wise investment.
Frampton’s four-year deal expires at season’s end, but he is playing career-best football, averaging 12 disposals and seven marks (2.4 intercepts) while losing only 22 per cent of his one-on-one marking contests.
After playing only 24 games in five years at Port Adelaide and Adelaide before crossing to Collingwood, he has already added 58 more appearances in three-and-a-bit seasons at his third club, including the 2023 premiership.
The Pies are yet to make a formal contract offer, but his form and age mean he could secure a multi-year pact.
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