New analysis of tanker movements into Australia reveals approximately 22 to 22 million barrels, equivalent to roughly 3.5 to 3.8 billion litres or two to three weeks of supply, expected to arrive before mid-May.
The total shipment is worth approximately $3.2 to $3.5 billion based on current pricing.
Diesel dominates, accounting for approximately 40-45 per cent of all incoming fuel, petrol follows closely with 25-30 per cent, while jet fuel accounts for roughly 10-15 per cent.
Most of the supply continues to come from Australia’s traditional refining partners in Asia.
South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia, alongside India’s massive Jamnagar refinery hub, feature heavily in the shipments.
MORE: What Iran ceasefire means for fuel prices
But the data also reveals new suppliers – a substantial volume of fuel is now being sourced from the United States, with multiple cargoes departing from hubs including Houston, Baton Rouge, Corpus Christi and Cherry Point.
In total, US-origin shipments account for an estimated 4-5 million barrels.
Australia has also sourced a shipment from Europe; one vessel, Pacific Debbie, is carrying about 510,000 barrels of refined fuel from Amsterdam to Hastings, Victoria, arriving in mid-May.
That type of route is highly unusual for Australia, and that cargo alone would be worth approximately $75 million.
The updated shipping data comes as the federal government announced it would step in to underwrite fuel shipments, backing companies to buy high-risk cargoes.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed on Thursday the government has struck agreements with Ampol and Viva Energy to support additional fuel purchases through Export Finance Australia (EFA).
MORE: Albo’s speech a ‘sign of panic’ before crunch
The new agreement allows the government to buy spot cargoes that would normally be considered too risky or too expensive, with the government effectively acting as a financial backstop if prices moved against them.
“This is not business as usual,” Mr Albanese said, stressing the fuel would be “additional supply” brought into Australia and could be directed to areas under pressure, particularly regional communities.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the underwriting arrangement allowed companies to act quickly when cargoes became available, despite extreme price volatility driven by the Middle East conflict.
“These purchases become even riskier … as the oil price might move substantially by the time spot cargo gets to Australia,” he said.
MORE: Bad news for every Aussie EV driver
“This arrangement will enable companies to make a purchase that would have been non-commercial.”
However, when pressed on the scale, the government did not disclose how many shipments are being underwritten, and refused to confirm the potential cost to taxpayers.
The Prime Minister said the nature of the market made it impossible to predetermine how many purchases would occur or at what price.
“Your question assumes that we know how many spot purchases are made and for what price they are made. This is a market that is moving up and down,” he said.
“It’d be like going to an auction and telling you in advance how much you have in your pocket,” the Prime Minister said, adding the aim is to “minimise taxpayers’ exposure” while focusing on supply.
Under the agreements, Ampol and Viva can move quickly to secure cargoes from a wider range of sources, including Asia, North America and Mexico.
