Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila is heading towards the Far North Queensland coast, with authorities warning of potential landfall early next week – and it’s not the only system Australians need to watch out for.
The powerful category 4 cyclone is slowly tracking west through the Solomon Sea, between Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, the Bureau of Meteorology confirmed on Thursday.
Meteorologist Dylan Narramore said Maila us currently about 900 km east of Port Moresby in Papua New Guinea.
“It’s now starting to move towards the west south-west, and likely to impact parts of far northern Queensland early next week,” Mr Narramore said.
He said satellite imagery showed “a very organised and well structured” tropical cyclone out in the Solomon Sea.
Over the weekend, Maila is expected to move into the Coral Sea before making its final approach towards Far North Queensland’s coast on Sunday and into Monday, with a coastal crossing likely around Tuesday early next week.
Mr Narramore said the cyclone had begun shifting west after interacting with a large upper-level high pressure system over the Coral Sea, which is expected to steer it west and then south-west toward the Far North Queensland coast in the coming days.
Forecast modelling shows a range of possible crossing locations along Cape York Peninsula.
“Many have it coming towards northern parts of the peninsula district, north of about Cooktown, maybe around the Lockhart/Coen River area.
“Some model guidance does have it a little bit further south towards the Cooktown area and that’s what we’ll be watching closely in the coming days.”
The Bureau said there is an “increasingly likely” chance Maila will remain at tropical cyclone intensity through to early next week, though the risk will drop from high to moderate after the system crosses the Far North Queensland coast.
However, forecasters warn there’s a “moderate chance” the cyclone will re-intensify after making landfall, potentially threatening communities on the western side of Cape York Peninsula.
Mr Narramore said coastal impacts are not expected immediately despite the cyclone approaching.
“As it does so over the next few days, we’re not expecting much rainfall or wind impacts through much of the Queensland coast … it really isn’t until Monday, into Tuesday we’ll start seeing impacts to much of the northern Queensland coast.”
“Looking at rainfall from now until Monday morning, you’ll notice that almost no rainfall is expected for much of northern Queensland and that’s thanks to this cyclone sucking all that weather away from the coast due to those southerly winds wrapping around,” Mr Narramore said.
“We could see possible cyclone impacts somewhere between Cooktown and the Lockhart River, even Thursday Island, early next week, particularly Monday and Tuesday.”
Meanwhile, a separate tropical low (38U) is forecast to form over the next few days, northwest of Christmas Island.
The developing system is expected to move southeast at first, bringing increased showers and storms to Christmas Island before steering west-southwest over open waters by the weekend.
The Bureau said there was currently a “low chance” of the system developing into a tropical cyclone from Saturday.
Mr Narramore urged residents to stay alert as forecasts evolve.
“If you live in far northern Queensland or know someone that does, make sure you stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings,” he said.
