Whenever US President Donald Trump rails against Australia for not “helping” with the war in Iran, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese offers two simple but telling observations.
First, the United States did not inform western allies of his plans to attack. In other words, if you break it, you own it.
Second, after launching the action without consulting Western allies, we have not received any specific and formal requests from the US.
“What help has Australia failed to provide, as you understand it?” a reporter asked Mr Albanese at a press conference on Tuesday.
“That’s not a question for me,” the PM replied.
Don’t ask, don’t offer: the US and Australia on Iran
Diplomatic double-speak is at play, however, whenever Australia asserts it has received no formal requests.
As any foreign affairs expert will tell you, the US won’t formally ask Australia for military assistance in Iran if it knows the answer is ‘no’.
And the United States knows the answer is ‘no’ because Foreign Minister Penny Wong keeps saying Australia will not join the war and wants both sides to de-escalate.
“What we’ve made clear is that right from the start, we would not be providing boots on the ground,” Senator Wong said.
The US asked for help protecting Gulf states including the United Arab Emirates and Australia has obliged. Australia has the capacity to expand that commitment. But that doesn’t involve joining the US mission in Iran.
Why is this conflict different from Iraq and Afghanistan
Professor Rory Medcalf, the Head of the National Security College at ANU, describes the situation as “a mess”.
“Look, my working guess is that the US President wants basically a blank cheque to say, ‘we will put ships into a Coalition led by the US to clear the Strait of Hormuz,’ and we’ll worry about the details later,’’ Professor Medcalf told news.com.au.
“He was trying to build an international coalition behind the US to clear the Strait. When there was no flood of volunteers for that, then he changed his tune to, ‘Well, you do it yourselves.’
“All of that normal programming has been out the window with this because there was obviously no forewarning or consultation about the actual attack.
“I’m actually quite sympathetic to the government because I don’t see what else they can do, in a way.
“In previous conflicts, such as in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the fight against ISIS, there would have been very carefully framed offers and discussions taking place behind the scenes well ahead of time.”
What President Trump wants
It’s not hard to speculate what Trump wants from Australia given the US President’s increasingly profanity-laced tirades on the Truth Social platform.
What he wants is for allies to “get your own oil” by reopening the world’s most critical energy chokepoint that Iran is now using to hold the world to ransom.
“Help with the with reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but he didn’t specify what help he wanted,’’ Australia’s former ambassador to the US Arthur Sinodinos told news.com.au.
“This is President Trump’s operating mode. Statements are operative for as long as is necessary, and then they’re no longer operative, depending on the circumstances at the time.
“His lashing out at allies is an expression of frustration that the war is taking longer than he expected.
“The inference being that (he expected) a combination of shock and awe by the Israelis and the Americans was going to pound the Iranians into submission in the first few days, if not weeks.
“Anything he says about allies should be just seen as something said at a moment in time, support for the (US) alliance in countries like Australia is pretty strong.”
Why Australia could join an alliance with Britain
But despite Australia not wanting to join the war in Iran, there are behind-the-scenes moves to play a larger role in securing the safe passage of oil supplies.
Defence Minister Richard Marles confirmed last week that Australia is in talks with a Coalition of 35 nations to discuss military measures to secure the safe passage of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and could contribute assets to the plan.
“We will look to what Australia can do,” he said.
“I’m reluctant to speculate in detail about all of that, other than to say our E-7 Wedgetail is in the region right now and it’s providing, or doing important work in terms of contributing to the defence of the countries of the Gulf, in particular the UAE.”
While Mr Starmer insisted Britain did not want to be “dragged” into the military conflict and suggested “this is not our war” he said the most effective way he could support the cost of living in Britain was to push for de-escalation in the Middle East and a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
US President’s conflicting messages on the Strait of Hormuz
Two weeks ago, President Trump said it would be “easy” to reopen the waterway and accused NATO of not doing enough to help.
“COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER!,” he said.
“Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuvre [SIC] that is the single reason for the high oil prices.”
He’s also suggested the US has plenty of oil and the blockages are not a problem for the United States.
“All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty. And Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT,’’ he said in a social media post.
Despite these remarks, over the weekend he demanded Iran open the waterway using colourful language.
“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F****n’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP”,’’ he said.
Afterwards, he told Fox News it might be all over on Easter Monday, but that he was considering “blowing everything up and taking over the oil” if the situation couldn’t be sorted out.
‘No happy ending here’
Professor Medcalf said that the United States was damaging relationships with allies.
“It’s a complete mess, basically, because the United States has clearly gone in with no plan beyond the immediate attack and the assumption that this would cripple the regime,’’ he said.
“They’ve stirred up this this hornet’s nest that is, unfortunately, got a lot more staying power than than Trump expected.
“He’s clearly not going to back down either. I mean, we’re in this awful situation where he’s threatening undefined attacks on civilian infrastructure.
“And to be honest, it’s making it is making him and the US look pretty ineffectual, because if they don’t do it, then they back down. And if they do do it, then that’s going to have all sorts sorts of awful, second order consequences.
“I’ve always been supportive of the US alliance and comfortable with the US exercising power, including lethal force, at times, but when you go in without a plan, you think of what damage this is doing to American credibility.
“And whoever comes after Trump will have to work in a much depleted environment where American credibility has been, I think, permanently damaged. There’s no happy ending here.”
