Warning: This article contains strong language
Washington: Donald Trump began Easter Sunday as he begins most days – on social media.
“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran,” he wrote on his Truth Social account. “There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH!”
Then, just to make a point of it, he added: “Praise be to Allah.”
It was an unorthodox message from a US president at the best of times, let alone one of the holiest days of the calendar – though, obviously, this is not an orthodox presidency.
One might go so far as to call it undignified. Of course, that won’t stop Republican faith leaders showing up to the White House next time they are summoned to applaud as Trump declares “religion is back” in America under his leadership.
That aside, the outburst speaks to a commander-in-chief who is flailing and increasingly backed into a corner. The Venezuela-style deal with a compliant underling has not materialised, despite Trump extending his own deadline by 10 days. He will be forced to escalate an unpopular war that he would probably rather just end.
We have seen this frustration before – last June, during the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, when he said both sides “don’t know what the fuck they’re doing”. In that case, the ceasefire deal he had patched together ended up holding.
Trump’s post does not give you the impression of someone with a calm, steady hand on the trigger. For one thing, last week he was saying that he couldn’t care less about the Strait of Hormuz and that it was other countries’ problem. Today, it’s his central demand.
On the other hand, this is partly by design. There is strategic leverage in being seen as dangerous and unpredictable when you’re the guy with all the bombs, and in escalating your rhetoric as the notional deadline approaches.
Ilan Goldenberg, a former Iran specialist at the US Defence Department, now vice president of progressive pro-Israel think tank J Street, made a similar observation on Easter Sunday, but said Trump’s shtick was no longer working.
“Trump has leaned on the ‘madman theory’ of foreign relations: say outrageous things, make threats and others fall in line, especially with US power behind you,” Goldenberg said on X. “But it breaks down when your adversary sees backing down as existential. That’s where we are with Iran.
“Now, Trump’s only move – more threats – carries less credibility each time. That’s how you box yourself into escalation and a quagmire.”
Another Iran expert, Raz Zimmt at the Institute for National Security Studies, said it was clear that Trump’s message was seen in Tehran as coming from a position of desperation rather than strength. He said it was difficult imagining any country capitulating to the demands of a leader who spoke in such a manner.
“I don’t know if the Iranian regime has a breaking point or what it might be,” Zimmt said on X. “It is clear that the Iranian leadership still assesses that its ability to withstand even the next level of escalation – including attacks on critical infrastructure – is stronger than the ability of its neighbours and the global economy to absorb the expected consequences of such a move.”
Trump maintains a deal is possible before his deadline, which he appears to have delayed again until 8pm Tuesday (US time). It was originally set at Monday, April 6.
Much can happen in 48 hours, and it may be that Iran lets a few more ships through the strait and makes enough promises that the president “TACOs”. After all, the kind of escalation he is contemplating is not just strategically significant but morally hazardous.
However, Iran does not sound like it is on the verge of compromise.
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian parliamentary speaker with whom the US is supposed to be negotiating, fired back by suggesting Trump’s recklessness was dragging Americans into “living HELL” instead, and threatened to burn the entire region.
“Make no mistake: You won’t gain anything through war crimes,” he said.
Iran may see backing down as existential, but it has agency and responsibility here. Trump has given fair warning of what he is prepared to unleash – and we know Israel will be begging for him to proceed. So the Iranians cannot say they weren’t given an opportunity to avert whatever comes next.
And if it’s true that Trump is desperate, then he should be desperate to do a deal. Tehran could take advantage.
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Michael Koziol is the North America correspondent for The Age and Sydney Morning Herald. He is a former Sydney editor, Sun-Herald deputy editor and a federal political reporter in Canberra.Connect via X or email.