Opinion
When 51 Liberal MPs and senators file into their party room at 9am on Friday, they will face two choices: stick with Sussan Ley and give her more time, or switch to Angus Taylor and hope he can turn around their historically low poll numbers. To date, there is little evidence that either MP has the powers of persuasion or the policy program to do that.
Taylor’s pitch for the leadership has been light on for detail, more vibe and promise of change, while Ley – who promised to win back inner-city seats lost to independents – also pledged new ideas and policies, but has released little in the way of detail in her nine months or so in charge.
Supporters of Taylor believe enough people who voted for Ley last time have switched sides. Ley beat Taylor 29-25 in the last leadership vote, but his supporters say he could win by about six votes now. That’s because three of Ley’s supporters in the last ballot – former senators Hollie Hughes and Linda Reynolds, and almost-MP Gisele Kapterian – will not be present to vote this time, while NSW senator Jess Collins will be there but will vote for Taylor.
And it’s because Ley, as leader, has made a series of mistakes that have caused her standing to fall, and because her internal opponents have been undermining her leadership for weeks, if not months.
The chances of her surviving this challenge have been diminishing by the hour. Queensland senator James McGrath became the first of Ley’s supporters in the last ballot to resign from the frontbench on Thursday afternoon, making her task even harder. The carnage had begun in the morning and continued through the day with a slew of resignations from the opposition frontbench, including heavy hitters such as James Paterson, Michaelia Cash and Jonno Duniam, through to shadow assistant ministers most Australians would not know.
If Taylor succeeds in snatching the leadership he will need to immediately deal with a series of internal and external challenges that will test him like never before. Internally, Taylor will need to deal with angry Ley supporters who may be tempted to undermine him, head off Nationals MPs who will try to drag the Coalition to their preferred policy positions, stop the opposition parties talking about themselves, and limit the bloodletting after a frontbench shake-up.
Externally, Taylor will face immediate pressure to release fresh policies in areas including tax, housing and immigration, so the opposition has a point of difference with Labor. Ley was due to make a major policy announcement on immigration.
There is even the prospect of a byelection in Ley’s seat of Farrer. Why would she continue in parliament? She is 64, has served 25 years, is entitled to the very generous defined-benefits-scheme pension, owns her own plane and has young grandchildren. Whether she will stick around if she loses is an open question.
A byelection would be a nightmare for the Coalition, as it could throw up a five-cornered contest between the Liberals, Nationals, Labor, One Nation and an independent.
Taylor, if he loses the ballot, is considered less likely to quit politics, but there is an outside chance that he too might think the prospect of sitting on the backbench is unappealing. And yet, he is five years younger than Ley and has long coveted the prime ministership. The more likely scenario is that Taylor would stick around and, particularly if the ballot is close, that he would make a third attempt at winning the leadership.
Countering that, supporters of Andrew Hastie may object and argue Taylor is yesterday’s man and that only Hastie could deliver the generational change the party needs.
Do not for a moment underestimate the depths of despair in the Liberal Party at the moment. Several MPs, though they are not willing to speak on the record, talk openly about a long rebuild and targeting a return to government in 2031, rather than at the next election in 2028.
It’s an extraordinary concession and speaks to the mindset on the opposition benches: for all the hyperbole about Labor being the worst government in history and bringing civilisation to its knees, at least some members recognise that winning back government when Labor holds 94 seats is going to take time, and the ALP is all but certain to win a third term. That is a terrible mindset for the opposition to be in and ignores the fact that politics can be turned on its head in an instant.
Back on December 2, 2009, a day after Tony Abbott became Liberal Party leader, Labor had its end-of-year Christmas party for political staffers in one of Parliament’s many courtyards. A friend took me to the party and the first thing I saw was Anthony Albanese and Wayne Swan, standing on a table, ties loose and leading a rousing version of Queen’s We Are the Champions. As the song wrapped up, someone called out, “We are going to be in power for a generation!” Everyone cheered.
Seven months later, Kevin Rudd was rolled, and Julia Gillard was installed as prime minister. A couple of months after that Abbott won more seats than Gillard at the election, though she formed a minority government.
That’s how quickly politics can change.
Ley’s supporters argue she has not been given the chance to lead because of undermining and white-anting. There is some truth to that. But supporters of Taylor are adamant that most of the damage to her leadership has been self-inflicted. They refer to bad calls and missteps. Ley’s call for Albanese to sack US ambassador Kevin Rudd, her bizarre criticism of Albanese’s Joy Division T-shirt and her demand that parliament be recalled to pass hate-speech legislation – which blew up in her face when Nationals senators crossed the floor – have done the damage, they argue. They have a point, too.
The result of Friday’s vote, at this stage, is likely a narrow Taylor victory, but this is by no means certain.
Winning the ballot could be the easy part for Taylor. If he gets the job, the hard work will start immediately. He will be under more scrutiny than ever.
Read more on the Liberal Party leadership spill
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James Massola is chief political commentator. He was previously national affairs editor and South-East Asia correspondent. He has won Quill and Kennedy awards and been a Walkley finalist. Connect securely on Signal @jamesmassola.01Connect via X or email.