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Two of the rebel Nationals whose votes led to the historic Coalition split face losing their jobs at the next federal election, with senior Liberals warning the junior Coalition partner that it will struggle to claim a quota and retain senators in Victoria and NSW.
In Victoria and NSW, the Liberals and Nationals have historically run on a joint Senate ticket, even though the two parties are not merged as they are in Queensland, and at the next election, former shadow cabinet members Bridget McKenzie and Ross Cadell face re-election.
If the two parties do not reconcile before the next election, McKenzie and Cadell would struggle to claim a quota, which is just over one-seventh of the statewide vote. The Nationals won 7.3 per cent of the lower house vote in NSW at the last election and 4.6 per cent of the vote in Victoria, well short of the votes required.
Nationals leader David Littleproud last week took the extraordinary step of taking the Nationals out of the Coalition – the second time the junior coalition partner has quit in nine months – after a dispute over frontbench discipline and took a swipe at Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s leadership on his way out the door, prompting fevered speculation about Ley’s future as leader.
Conservative MPs Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie both covet the leadership but at this stage, with parliament due to return next week, Ley’s supporters are increasingly confident that she has the numbers to stay in the top job and are questioning how long Littleproud can survive as Nationals leader.
Ley is working towards naming a Liberals-only shadow frontbench by the end of this week, while Littleproud is planning to do the same for the Nationals.
The split means the Nationals will lose staff and resources and take a pay cut as they are no longer part of the official opposition, although Littleproud plans to appeal to the prime minister to keep up his party’s funds.
Former Liberal MP and party official Jason Falinski, who is widely expected to run for his former seat of Mackellar at the next election, gave a blunt assessment of McKenzie and Cadell’s chances of remaining in parliament.
“Bridget McKenzie and Ross Cadell will not hold their seats and from the Liberal Party’s point of view, we have two excellent [NSW] senators in Dave Sharma and Maria Kovacic who are doing excellent jobs. We had the tough task of deciding which one we like the most [because Cadell had been expected to take the second spot on the joint ticket] but now they can be in position one and two,” he said, adding the final seat would probably be a contest between One Nation’s Barnaby Joyce and the Liberals.
“The Nats aren’t even in with a look.”
Each state elects 12 senators overall, but only half of that number stand at each election as senators are elected to six-year terms rather than the three-year terms of House MPs.
At the last election, the Coalition won just two Senate seats in Victoria and two in NSW, with the third person on the joint ticket in each state missing out.
Former Victorian Liberal senator and party president Greg Mirabella, who lost his seat to the United Australia Party’s Ralph Babet in 2022 after being placed third on the ticket – behind Bridget McKenzie – said there were too many practical concerns for the Nationals to allow the split to continue.
“They will lose McKenzie and Cadell, they will lose funding too as a result. Littleproud is trying to shore up his position because they have problems with their right flank with One Nation, and Littleproud will be looking to see what happens with the Liberal leadership,” he said.
“From a Liberal Party organisation perspective, in Victoria and NSW, if this isn’t sorted by the end of the year, both divisions will be looking to do pre-selections and not worry about what is happening in the federal party room.”
Earlier on Monday, Liberal MP Tim Wilson compared Littleproud’s decision to quit the Coalition to Barnaby Joyce’s drunken night on a Canberra footpath two years ago, saying the Nationals leader had fallen flat as moderate Liberals say they’d be better off without the rural party.
Asked if the Coalition could reform with Littleproud as leader of the Nationals, Wilson said this was ultimately up to the National Party, “but it’s very hard to see”.
Liberal legal affairs spokesman Andrew Wallace is the latest frontbencher to back Ley, telling Sky News on Monday afternoon: “I’ve made it very clear to all and sundry that I support the leader. Sussan Ley has my absolute support.”
“I think that this is a storm in a teacup. I think there’s a small number of people who are trying to whip this into something it’s not.
“If there is a clear move, they’re not calling me. There’s a lot of light and colour and movement here, but look, I’ve spoken to a number of my colleagues and they’ve been in the exact same boat. No one has canvassed them for their votes, and they’re getting on with the job that they’re paid to do.”
Immigration spokesman Paul Scarr and deputy Liberal leader Ted O’Brien made media appearances on Tuesday morning and insisted that Ley retained support.
Ley and her allies are increasingly confident she will remain in the job for now, with one Liberal MP, who asked not to be named, declaring Ley was safe because her rivals, Taylor and Hastie, were not organised while Littleproud’s criticism of Ley had “guaranteed we can’t do anything in the short term”.
James Massola is chief political commentator. He was previously national affairs editor and South-East Asia correspondent. He has won Quill and Kennedy awards and been a Walkley finalist. Connect securely on Signal @jamesmassola.01Connect via X or email.From our partners
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