By June, International Business Machines, a pioneer in the sector, unveiled an impressively detailed framework for launching a fault-tolerant (that is, less error-prone) quantum computer by 2029. And in October, Google said that it ran a “verifiable” algorithm on its Willow chip — meaning one that can be repeated on another quantum system. The algorithm, dubbed “Quantum Echoes,” ran 13,000 times faster on Willow than what’s possible on the world’s most powerful supercomputer, according to Google.
The sheer pace of quantum activity from Big Tech and startups in 2025 would have been unthinkable even five years ago. Investors are taking notice and capital is flowing. The momentum is unlikely to ebb in 2026.
The US still leads, but China is rapidly narrowing the gap. I recently wrote about this, looking at a surge of patent filings — the same kind of data that analysts previously used to anticipate the nation’s leadership in other sectors, such as electric vehicles. John Martinis, one of this year’s winners of the Nobel Prize in Physics, warned earlier this month that China is mere “nanoseconds” behind.
A new geopolitical race is underway. Beijing has earmarked $US15.3 billion in public funds for quantum computing, more than eight times the $US1.9 billion the US has pledged.
The West was largely caught flat-footed by China’s rapid advances in AI. It cannot afford a repeat. The stakes in quantum are arguably higher, but there is no excuse to be surprised by new breakthroughs coming from there in the new year.
Still, for all the excitement, the limits of today’s machines are just as real.
At the start of the year, Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang predicted that we’re about 15 to 30 years away from quantum computers being very useful. He later said he was wrong, and by June declared the tech could be applied to “solve some interesting problems in the coming years.” But he’s not alone in hedging.
Amazon Web Service’s head of quantum hardware had a similar 15 to 30 year timeline in August. Even some of the most aggressive projections inside the industry put meaningful utility at least five years away. The spread in forecasts underscores how hard it remains to stabilise qubits and suppress error rates at scale.
Yet that uncertainty is precisely why business leaders should pay attention now.
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One of the most immediate risks stems from one of quantum’s most famous algorithms. In theory, Shor’s algorithm could allow a sufficiently powerful quantum computer to break much of the commonly-used encryption by banks and governments on today’s internet. New “post-quantum” cryptographic standards are being developed, but the question of existing systems becoming obsolete is increasingly a “when,” not an “if.”
A Bain survey this year found that 73 per cent of IT security professionals expect this to be a “material risk” within the next five years, and 32 per cent within the next three years. Yet only 9 per cent said they have a plan to address it.
This disconnect is the real story of quantum going into 2026. Timelines have compressed, money is pouring in and a global race is underway — but preparedness is lagging.
Now is the time for companies and policymakers to build new quantum strategies and talent pipelines, beginning with a serious plan for post-quantum security. The hype is getting louder; the quiet story is how unprepared we are.
