However, Netanyahu has not laid down the hatchet. He hasn’t halted the Israel Defence Forces campaign in Gaza, causing more displacement and the loss of civilian lives, has remained firm in his demand for the total destruction of Hamas and wants Israel to be in charge of Gaza’s security. These are contentious issues for Hamas. It wants the governance of Gaza to be handed over to a Palestinian body made up of technocrats and for the IDF to withdraw from all of Gaza, with Hamas retaining its arms until these objectives are achieved.
Trump has indicated a ceasefire and release of the hostages as priorities, but he appears to have a willingness to let other points of his plan be negotiated. Netanyahu’s intransigence has frustrated the president, who reportedly told him to stop being “so f—ing negative”. Yet, Trump knows that Netanyahu is not for turning. He has accompanied his admonishment with a warning to Hamas to move fast in accepting his plan; otherwise, he will let Israel obliterate it.
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Negotiations between Israel and Hamas to implement Trump’s plan have begun in Cairo under Qatari, Egyptian and American mediation. The outcome is most likely to be shaped by whether Trump will prevail over Netanyahu or vice versa. There is a lot at stake for both sides.
For Trump, it is to maintain his MAGA power base and keep alive his chances of a Nobel Peace Prize. For Netanyahu, it is to keep on board the extremists in his coalition cabinet, and to meet the demands of the Israeli public for a ceasefire with an urgent release of the hostages. He also wants to retain power and avoid facing a trial and potential imprisonment on longstanding charges of fraud and loss of public trust. Given the complexity of the situation, Trump’s plan hangs in the balance.
Amin Saikal is professor emeritus of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies at ANU, adjunct professor of social sciences at the University of Western Australia, and a Vice Chancellor’s Strategic Fellow at Victoria University.
